Japan’s top baseball league has been the home for some of the best pitchers in the world.
Shohei Ohtani, Masahiro Tanaka and Yu Darvish all started their path to stardom in NPB, and recent free agent signee Kodai Senga has shown that there is significant demand for NPB pitchers.
The 29-year old Senga left NPB as a free agent, but players can come stateside earlier via posting, which becomes realistic once a player turns 25.
Although there are a couple of candidates who are eligble to be posted soon, i wanted to take a look at a younger demographic of NPB Pitchers, specifically those under 25.
This is my Top 10 Best Young Starters in NPB . I will write something identical for the hitters soon.
The Qualifiers are:
- Pitcher must be under the age of 25 as of December 1st 2022.
- Pitcher must realistically project as a Starter, either in the present or near future.
Disclaimer: Most of these pitchers will not pitch in MLB, “MLB Outlook” is my projection if they do.
10. Tatsuya Imai (24) RHP, Saitama Seibu Lions
Having pitched consistently in NPB since 2018, the former 2016 first round pick by the Lions seems to have finally found his footing in pro ball these past 2 years, with a fastball that sits mid 90’s and can reach 99mph.
Imai pitched to a tune of a 2.41ERA over 59IP in 2022, and in 2021 he had a bigger workload and 3.30ERA in 158IP. Walks have been an issue though, with Imai walking 13.8% of batters he faced in 2022, but that walk rate has been steadily descreasing over the years.
There is a world where Imai fully figures it out and becomes a top of the rotation starter in the Lions rotation.
Current NPB Role: Back-End Starter
MLB Outlook: Multi-Inning Reliever
9. Takahisa Hayakawa (24) LHP, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles
After a solid sophomore season, Hayakawa has still not broken out like his 1st round pedigree would suggest, with back-to-back years with a 3.86ERA over 245 innings.
The stuff seems to be there, the former Waseda University product has a 7.9K/9 over his career while also boasting a very good 4.02K/BB ratio, the problem has been the long ball.
Hayakawa surrendered 19HR’s this season, one of the worst marks in the league, good for a 1.6HR/9.
If he figures out to make less mistakes over the plate, a breakout is on the horizon.
Current NPB Role: Mid-Rotation Starter
MLB Outlook: Back-End Starter/ Long Reliever
8. Chihiro Sumida (23) LHP, Saitama Seibu Lions
The Lions are lucky to have Sumida, as the 2021 first round pick was selected by four different teams (Carp, Giants, Swallows and Lions), with the Lions winning the lottery to what some considered Sumida to be “the most NPB ready pitcher in the draft” – @baseballcosmo, with comparisons to fellow southpaw and Baystars ace Shota Imanaga.
In a world of hype surrounding his rookie year, Sumida put up respectable numbers, in 81.2IP he struck out 73 batters, while allowing 4 HR’s all year to the tune of a 3.75ERA.
A 91-93mph fastball paired with a curveball that runs away from lefties and a changeup with 10mph difference from his fastball.
The base is there for a potential star, but Sumida has to show improvement in his sophomore year, since he is already 23.
Current NPB Role: Mid-Rotation Starter
MLB Outlook: Back-End Starter
7. Junya Nishi (21) RHP, Hanshin Tigers
To not be confused with his older teammate Yuki Nishi, Junya Nishi is a former first round pick out of high school, and despite only pitching 85 innings in his career so far, its clear he is ready for a bigger role in Hanshin’s stacked rotation.
The right hander boasts a fastball that can reach 95mph, and all his stuff seems to play due to the respect that the fastball commands, he has a strong frame as he is more physically imposing than the pitchers we have covered, standing in at 6’0 and 195lbs. Nishi projects as a very good mid rotation starter, but he has all it takes to strive for more.
Current NPB Role: Mid-Rotation Starter
MLB Outlook: Back-End Starter / Setup Man
6. Tomohisa Ohzeki (24) LHP, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks
Just barely clearing the age threshold for this list, Ohzeki is another one of the Hawks player development successes, as the 24-year-old finished is sophomore campaign with an impressive 2.93ERA over 101.1 innings.
His fastball sits in the 92mph range, which is above average in Japanese baseball, but that doesn’t make him a strikeout pitcher, instead Ohzeki has just a 6.0K/9 ratio over his career, which is mediocre, but he is good at limiting hard contact and letting his defense finish the job.
Ohzeki actually managed to start the All-Star game for the Pacific League this year before getting testicular cancer, but fortunately he was able to make a miraculously quick recovery and come back to pitch before the year was over.
Current NPB Role: #2 Starter
MLB Outlook: Back-End Starter
5. Hiroto Takahashi (20) RHP, Chunichi Dragons
After one of the best rookie seasons for a teenager in recent years, the NPB world has no choice but to pay attention to the 20-year-old phenom, Hiroto Takahashi, the former first round pick spent 2021 in the minor leagues where he went 0-5 with an ERA over seven.
The script flipped in 2022, Takahashi was one of the best pitchers in the Central League, managing a 2.47ERA over 116.2IP while punching out an impressive 134 batters.
There is no denying the limitless potential the youngster has, he can already reach speeds of 97mph on his fastball, a mark usually reserved for the likes of Ohtani, Sasaki and Darvish.
In terms of potential, he is only surpassed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki, he just needs to keep proving his upside.
Current NPB Role: Mid-Rotation Starter
MLB Outlook: Mid-Rotation Starter
4. Hiroya Miyagi (21) LHP, Orix Buffaloes
The Robin to Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Batman, Hiroya Miyagi is already an ace caliber pitcher at just 21, being a crucial part of the Buffaloes winning their first championship since 1996, when they were called the BlueWave and Ichiro played for them.
Individually, Miyagi actually had a slighty disappointing year compared to his 2021 season, where he posted a 2.51ERA over 148 innings.
This year Miyagi wasn’t bad, but a 3.16ERA sells his talents short, he is very good at limiting walks, with a 1.8BB/9 compared to his solid 7.7K/9 rate.
Miyagi might have his upside slightly capped due to just being 5’7, but he has proven he can at least be a really good #2 in the rotation, and there is no reason he can’t be an ace after Yamamoto leaves for MLB.
Current NPB Role: Top of the Rotation Starter
MLB Outlook: Mid-Rotation Starter
3. Shosei Togo (22) RHP, Yomiuri Giants
The heir to Tomoyuki Sugano’s throne as the Giants ace, Shosei Togo amazingly only was selected in the 6th round of the 2018 NPB Draft, and he has posted 3 seasons with an ERA under 2.8, save only for 2021.
Togo doesn’t have an overpowering fastball, sitting at just 88mph, instead he relies on an array of off-speed pitches like his splitter, combined with a stress free release that seems to fool hitters.
His 2022 season was his best yet, posting a 2.62ERA over 171.2IP with 154 K’s, signaling a true workhorse in the making.
Current NPB Role: Top of the Rotation Starter
MLB Outlook: Mid-Rotation Starter
2. Roki Sasaki (21) RHP, Chiba Lotte Marines
Nicknamed “The Monster of Reiwa”, there isn’t a player more special in Japan (and maybe the world) than Roki Sasaki.
In his youth, Sasaki and his family were victims of the 2011 earthquake/tsunami that wreaked havoc in Japan, unfortunately taking away his grandfather and father’s life.
On April 10th against the Orix Buffaloes, Sasaki pitched a perfect game, where he struck out 19(!) batters and a whopping 13(!!!) batters were in a row.
The Marines have been careful with Sasaki’s health, often giving him periodic rests between starts and pulling him out of games earlier than what’s expected in Japan.
In 2022, he posted a 2.02ERA over 129.1IP with 173 K’s while walking 23 batters,
His repertoire consists of a 100+mph fastball that can touch 103 and a splitter and slider.
He might not be first on this list, but I expect him one day to be one of the best pitchers in the world.
Current NPB Role: Ace
MLB Outlook: Ace
Watch Sasaki’s Perfect Game on Youtube
Honorable Mentions
- Hiroto Saiki (24) RHP, Hanshin Tigers
Boasts a 3.55 career ERA and had a 1.53ERA in 2022, needs bigger role.
- Ren Mukunoki (22) RHP, Orix Buffaloes
2021 1st round pick who took a no hitter into the 9th on his second start.
- Kotaro Ueda (20) LHP, Chunichi Dragons
2.67ERA over 41.1IP on rookie year.
- Haruka Nemoto (19) LHP, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters
Standing just at 5’7 and 170lbs, the diminutive southpaw posted a 2.52ERA over 60 innings at just 19 years old.
- Atsushi Endoh (23) RHP, Hiroshima Carp
Potential innings eater with a career 3.71ERA.
- Carter Stewart Jr. (23) RHP, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks
The former Atlanta Braves Top 10 pick in the MLB Draft, Carter Stewart has been a trailblazer after signing a 6-year deal with the Hawks once he failed to sign with Atlanta.
So far the returns have been diminished, with the 6’6 right hander being limited to injuries, but 2023 finally might be the year he breaks out in NPB.
1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (24) RHP, Orix Buffaloes
The ace of Samurai Japan and the next superstar pitcher in line to join the likes of Ohtani, Darvish, Maeda and probably Senga, Yoshinobu Yamamoto might be the crown jewel amongst all of them.
All of Yamamoto’s stats are almost surreal, a 1.95 career ERA, back-to-back 200+K seasons in just 26 starts, earning him back-to-back pitching triple crowns and MVP honors.
Yamamoto’s stuff is electric, his fastball sits at 95mph but can touch 98, he has a cutter, curveball and splitter, all considered elite pitches.
Since he turns 25 next year, the 2023 season might be Yamamoto’s last in Japan, after which he is expected to sign the most lucrative deal in international free agency history.
Current NPB Role: Best Pitcher in NPB
MLB Outlook: Ace
